U.S. President Joe Biden had a marginal 2 percentage point lead over Republican challenger Donald Trump in the race to win the November presidential election, following Trump's historic conviction by a jury on charges he falsified business records to cover up a hush money payment to a porn star, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Friday.
Some 41% of registered voters in the two-day poll, carried out in the hours after Trump's conviction by a Manhattan jury on Thursday, said they would vote for Biden, a Democrat, if the election were held today, while 39% picked former President Trump. Some 20% of voters in the poll said they had not picked a candidate, were leaning toward third-party options or might not vote at all in the Nov. 5 election.
Biden's lead was within the survey's roughly 2 percentage point margin of error for registered voters, many of whom remain on the fence with about five months left before the Nov. 5 election. A prior Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted May 7-14 showed Trump and Biden tied with 40% support each.
The poll found 10% of respondents would pick Robert Kennedy Jr., an anti-vaccine activist running as an independent, if he were on the ballot with Trump and Biden. The prior poll conducted showed Kennedy with 13% support.
While nationwide surveys give important signals on American support for political candidates, just a handful of competitive states typically tilt the balance in the U.S. electoral college, which ultimately decides who wins a presidential election.
Both candidates carry significant liabilities in the first U.S. presidential election rematch in nearly 70 years.
Trump on Thursday became the first U.S. president ever to be convicted of a crime, whether in office or after leaving the White House. Trump has vowed to appeal the verdict and says the prosecution was politically motivated. He could be sentenced in July and faces potential prison time after a jury found him guilty of 34 charges stemming from a payment to an adult film actress before the 2016 presidential election in exchange for her silence about an alleged sexual encounter she says she had with Trump.
The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, which surveyed adults nationwide, found one in 10 Republican registered voters said they would not vote for Trump following his conviction.
Trump, 77, also faces three other criminal prosecutions which involve charges he tried to overturn his 2020 election defeat and that he mishandled sensitive documents after leaving the presidency in 2021, though legal wrangling could keep those cases from going to trial before the November election. Trump has pleaded not guilty to all charges.
Biden's liabilities include concerns about his age - 81 - as well as strong criticism from a slice of his Democratic Party over his support for Israel's war on Hamas fighters. Protests have roiled U.S. universities in recent months, fueling concerns among Democrats that some young voters could turn against Biden.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll included responses from 2,135 registered voters who were surveyed online.
