The world is closely monitoring the situation regarding the expired Grain Corridor agreement. The announcement from Russia that the "Grain Corridor agreement has actually come to an end" has sparked various reactions.
To mitigate the impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on global food prices, the United Nations (UN), Russia, Türkiye, and Ukraine had previously signed the Black Sea Grain Corridor Agreement in Istanbul on July 22, 2022.
Kremlin Spokesman Dmitriy Peskov stated on July 17 that the agreement had been stopped, and Russia would only return to it when certain conditions are met. He pointed out that Russia's part of the agreement was not fulfilled.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitro Kuleba addressed the issue of the expired agreement and mentioned that Ukraine is engaged in discussions with Türkiye regarding Putin's return to the Black Sea Grain Corridor Agreement.
Kuleba emphasized that the coordination with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is crucial in ensuring Putin's recommitment to the agreement, and this alignment serves both countries' mutual interests.
According to the statement from the Turkish Presidency, President Erdoğan emphasized during the call that the long-term suspension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which he considered a "bridge of peace," would not benefit anyone and would particularly harm countries reliant on grain with low income levels.
He pointed out that grain prices decreased by about 23% during the implementation period but increased by around 15% in the last two weeks.
Erdoğan also stated that Türkiye would continue to exert intense efforts and diplomacy for the continuation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
According to the analysis shared by officials from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations regarding the impact of the initiative's dysfunction on global food markets and food security after its loss of function, the grain exports from three Ukrainian ports were successfully achieved through the initiative on July 22, 2022, with the help of the UN and Türkiye.
While uncertainties persist about the renewal of the initiative despite negotiations, the current interruption poses a risk of instability in markets and negative effects on humanitarian aid. There is an increasing possibility of price fluctuations in essential food commodities due to uncertainties about the continuity of Ukraine's exports.
FAO believes that, in the short term, there is no risk in food supply, but the long-term suspension of the initiative should not be underestimated in terms of its impact on access to food and the resilience of agricultural food systems.
Even if a smaller share of exports is directly allocated to developing countries, increasing grain exports from Ukraine is expected to contribute to improving food security, along with price and market stability, as it did before.
According to FAO, the focus in the Black Sea Grain Initiative should be on the "most vulnerable countries and groups" currently experiencing food insecurity and inadequate nutrition. Ukrainian farmers facing difficulties due to war, production reductions, and income declines should also be included in this context.
FAO predicts that the revival of the agreement would prevent a sharp decline in agricultural production in Ukraine. Compared to the Black Sea Grain Initiative, all other alternative initiatives for grain exports from Ukraine would be more costly, and these costs would affect international food prices.
Amid climate shocks putting agricultural food systems under pressure, a decrease in supplies from Ukraine in international markets is foreseen to be a significant risk to global food security.
Türkiye's crucial role in the grain agreement as a diplomatic success is acknowledged. Through the initiative, more than 33 million tons of grain products were shipped to world markets. Approximately 39% of these shipments went to European countries, 24% to China, and 15% to the Middle East and North Africa countries.
