‘Window of opportunity’: Experts optimistic but cautious on Turkish-US ties under Trump

As Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House in January, experts in Washington anticipate both opportunities and challenges for Türkiye-US relations.

Analysts and former US officials speaking to Anadolu highlighted that personal ties between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Trump during his 2016-2020 term could advance cooperation on critical issues, from Syria to Ukraine.

Yet lingering disagreements, particularly over Gaza, may still present challenges.

- 'WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY'

President Erdoğan was one of the first leaders to congratulate Trump on his apparent election victory Tuesday night and spoke to him over the phone the following day. Calling the president-elect a "friend," Erdoğan expressed a desire to strengthen cooperation and urged Trump to fulfill his pledge to end Israel's wars on Gaza and Lebanon, as well as the Russian war on Ukraine.

"I'm quite optimistic," James Jeffrey, former US ambassador to Türkiye and special envoy for Syria under Trump, told Anadolu.

"Relations have improved over the last several years," he noted, explaining that while full agreement has not yet been reached, there is a shared understanding on Syria, where US troops remain present in northeastern parts of the war-torn country occupied by the PKK/YPG terrorist group, while pro-regime forces continue to bombard rebel-held areas in northwestern Idlib province.

"There's also coordination from the Caucasus all the way from Syria on the Iranian threat," said Jeffrey, who is now with the Wilson Center in Washington.

He also noted that the recent death of the Fetullah Terrorist Organization's (FETO) ringleader Fetullah Gulen last month also "released yet another problem."

Luke Coffey, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, pointed out that a new US administration always presents an opportunity to reset relations with allies.

"It will offer an opportunity because both President Trump and President Erdoğan have proven that they can be pragmatic and place national interests above any sort of personality conflicts," he said. "I think deep down, both actually have respect for the other."

Kadir Ustun, executive director at the SETA Foundation at Washington DC, also thinks that Trump and Erdoğan's personal ties provide an "advantage for the stability of the relationship" but adds that Trump's "unpredictability" could create issues for Turkish foreign policy.

"Nevertheless, President Erdoğan's long experience with a number of US presidents in the past two decades will allow him to create a positive working relationship," he added.

- POTENTIAL WITHDRAWAL OF US TROOPS FROM SYRIA

The main disagreement between Ankara and Washington is US support for the YPG, the offshoot of the PKK terrorist group in northeastern Syria, later rebranded the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which the US views as a partner in the fight against Daesh/ISIS.

Türkiye is strongly against this support due to the YPG's links to the PKK, which is recognized as a terrorist organization by Türkiye, the US, and the EU.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a close Trump ally, has recently said the US president-elect is interested in pulling troops out of northern Syria.

Robert Ford, former US ambassador to Syria and a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, believes Syria could be a factor that will help Türkiye-US relations.

"I will be very surprised if the new Trump administration keeps the American troops in eastern Syria and if they sustain the American relationship with the Syrian Democratic Forces under the leadership of the YPG militia," he told Anadolu.

Ford, however, also highlighted an internal split within the Republican Party: Conservative "hawks" support a continued US presence to counter Iranian influence, while realists favor reducing US military engagements.

Jeffrey recalls Trump's 2018 decision to withdraw, saying: "He was convinced by people he trusted that those troops were serving a purpose."

He warned against a potential vacuum that the US troops' departure from Syria could leave, which could be filled by Iran, Syria's Bashar al-Assad regime, or Daesh/ISIS, which, he said, is something Türkiye also does not want.

"This can be worked, but it's an area that I do worry about," he added.

Coffey said: "I think it's time that we end this relationship with the YPG terror group and we start to restore our relations with our NATO ally Türkiye."

Ustun also thinks Trump will likely end American support for the YPG unless convinced otherwise by the military and Congress like in his first term.

"Even if he decides to keep troops there, he will likely coordinate with Türkiye much more actively and listen to Turkish concerns," he added.

- TÜRKIYE'S ROLE IN RUSSIA-UKRAINE PEACE EFFORTS

Analysts emphasize Türkiye's key role in peace efforts in the Russia-Ukraine war, which could be a significant advantage in Turkish-US relations.

President Erdoğan said last week that a "solutions-based approach" from the US could help end the war.

Coffey underscored Türkiye's role as the "only country that both Ukraine and Russia trust."

"If President Trump really wants to have some sort of deal between Ukraine and Russia, Türkiye will have to play a role," he said.

Ford also expected a "more useful American-Turkish conversation about how to move to a negotiation about resolving the Ukraine war," a sentiment that Jeffrey agrees with, suggesting that Trump could leverage Ankara's influence to advance peace talks, given the effectiveness of US-Türkiye cooperation on Ukraine thus far.

"Türkiye has been the leading country to bring together the Ukrainians and the Russians," he said.

"I think that President Trump, who I know very well, trusts and likes President Erdoğan and will probably turn to Ankara."

- GAZA: A POINT OF CONTENTION

Despite areas of convergence, experts believe that a disagreement over US policy on Gaza is likely to persist, with "tension" anticipated, particularly regarding Türkiye's stance on the Palestinian resistance.

"It's less about Israel in general and more about Erdoğan's stance toward (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu," Coffey said, referring to Ankara's stance, but adding that this could strain relations.

He suggested that Trump may handle Iran cautiously to avoid new wars involving the US, which could open a path for a behind-the-scenes agreement between Ankara and Washington.

However, he described Trump's pledge to end the Middle East conflicts as "campaign rhetoric," adding that he is unlikely to "stop the fighting between Israel and Hamas or Israel and Hezbollah."

Ford also believes that the Trump administration will not pressure Netanyahu early on, noting that "the war in Gaza will end when the Israelis are ready to end it."

According to Ustun, as the Netanyahu government is preparing to annex the occupied West Bank, the Israeli premier may find that Trump is open to support Israel.

"If Trump aligns his policies alongside the Netanyahu government's ethnic cleansing and annexation policies, this will create friction with Türkiye," he added.

- S-400 AND F-35: CHALLENGES LINGER ON DEFENSE PROCUREMENT

Though the US recently approved the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Türkiye, seen by both Turkish and US officials as an important step to rebuild trust in relations, disagreements linger over Türkiye's purchase of Russia's S-400 air defense system, which led to the country's removal from the F-35 program and US sanctions.

The US maintains that the F-35 warplanes cannot coexist with the S-400 system, while Ankara expects the lifting of the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) sanctions.

"I see a way forward. Trump will try," Jeffrey said, though he remains cautious about the technical challenges.

Coffey does not expect an immediate solution to the issue, proposing that restoring trust may involve "confidence-building measures" in other defense areas before approaching the complex F-35 dilemma.

"But I think all sides agree that this very complex issue needs to be parked, and instead, we need to focus on ways to get the bilateral relationship between Washington and Ankara back on track," he said.