Turkey will surpass Germany, Russia and Japan to become the fifth largest economy in the world by 2030, while China will unsurprisingly emerge as the world's number one economic power by 2020, according to U.K.-based multinational bank Standard Chartered Plc's long-term forecasts.
The projection foresees a major shake-up of the world's current economic order, envisioning seven emerging markets taking over the top 10. The U.K., France and Italy are nowhere to be seen in the select 10.
Using purchasing power parity exchange rates and nominal GDP, Standard Chartered economists have predicted that India will comfortably take over the U.S. to grab second place, while Indonesia will break into the top 5, just above Turkey by 2030.
"India will likely be the main mover, with its trend growth accelerating to 7.8% by the 2020s partly due to ongoing reforms, including the introduction of a national goods and services tax (GST) and the Indian Bankruptcy Code (IBC)," the report said.
According to the forecasts, the world's 10 largest economies by nominal GDP by 2030 will be as follows:
1. China: $64.2 trillion
2. India: $46.3 trillion
3. US: $31 trillion
4. Indonesia: $10.1 trillion
5. Turkey: $9.1 trillion
6. Brazil: $8.6 trillion
7. Egypt: $8.2 trillion
8. Russia: $7.9 trillion
9. Japan: $7.2 trillion
10. Germany: $6.9 trillion
"Our long-term growth forecasts are underpinned by one key principle: countries' share of world GDP should eventually converge with their share of the world's population, driven by the convergence of per capita GDP between advanced and emerging economies," Standard Chartered economists led by David Mann wrote in a note.
