War in Ukraine to lop $190 bln off Russian economy in delayed reckoning- Bloomberg

An economy Putin once wanted to make one of the world’s five biggest is on a path to lose $190 billion in gross domestic product by 2026 relative to its prewar trajectory, according to Bloomberg Economics, roughly the equivalent of the entire annual GDP of countries like Hungary or Kuwait.

Russia avoided an economic debacle in the aftermath of President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine, in what was an opening act of a slow-burning crisis that will play out in the years to come.

An economy Putin once wanted to make one of the world's five biggest is on a path to lose $190 billion in gross domestic product by 2026 relative to its prewar trajectory, according to Bloomberg Economics, roughly the equivalent of the entire annual GDP of countries like Hungary or Kuwait.

But even as Russia logged its third straight quarter of contraction to end 2022, its downturn for the whole year was a fraction of the almost 10 percent collapse that was predicted a month after the invasion. The central bank has put last year's drop at 2.5 percent and projects growth may resume already this year.

The decline probably intensified last quarter in annual terms and may be even worse to start this year, according to analysts polled by Bloomberg.

In what would be the sharpest contraction since the height of the global pandemic, data originally scheduled for Friday was expected to show GDP dropped an annual 4.6 percent in the fourth quarter, the Bloomberg poll showed.

The Federal Statistics Service moved the publication date to next Wednesday, a day after Putin plans to address the nation. The agency known as Rosstat provided no explanation for the change.





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