The outcome of the U.S. elections in November could mark a significant turning point for federal policy and have implications for credit ratings, Fitch Ratings said in a report.
If President Joe Biden returns to the White House with a split Congress it would likely mean a continuation of major policies in general, the rating agency said Monday.
A victory by former President Donald Trump, on the other hand, would likely mean changes to key policy areas, especially if the Republican Party takes control of the Senate and retains or increases its majority in the House of Representatives, it added.
In the outcome of a change in administration, Fitch said there are seven key policy areas that could have the largest effect on credit -- trade protectionism, persistent fiscal pressures, geopolitical positioning and foreign policy, a climate policy rollback, financial deregulation, social policy reform and restrictive immigration.
"Trade protectionism and fiscal pressures have been bipartisan trends, where we would expect a Trump administration to mark an amplification in policies. The other policy areas would likely experience sharper pivots," it said.
The agency said it is not likely to see broad-based direct ratings effects in the short-term, but added: "However, over the medium and longer terms, indirect feedthroughs could prove more meaningful to certain sectors."
