Last year, prolonged extreme heat in West Africa negatively impacted cocoa harvests, which are essential to global chocolate production. Researchers note that this caused a decline in production and record-high cocoa prices.
Farmers in West Africa, which accounts for about 70% of global cocoa production, have been facing increasing challenges such as extreme temperatures, diseases, and irregular rainfall in recent years.
According to the independent research group Climate Central, rising temperatures, linked to the use of oil, coal, and methane gas, have become more frequent, particularly in Ivory Coast, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria.
Researchers have assessed the effects of global warming by examining temperature data and climate models, noting that the critical temperature threshold for cocoa production is 32°C. Over the past decade, the number of hot days above this threshold has increased by three weeks.
In 2023, global temperatures reached record highs, with temperatures exceeding 32°C for at least 42 days in two-thirds of the studied regions.
Scientists highlight that extreme heat reduces cocoa yields and quality, while other factors such as pest infestations, irregular rainfall, smuggling, and illegal mining also adversely affect cocoa production.
A separate study by British aid organization Christian Aid found that cocoa farmers in West Africa are vulnerable to climate change-related weather conditions.
The report states that excessive rainfall in 2023 damaged cocoa production, while drought is expected to negatively impact production in 2024.
Christian Aid's Osai Ojigho emphasized that cocoa farming is a livelihood in some of the world's poorest regions, and "human-caused climate change is seriously threatening this livelihood."
Declining production has led to significant increases in global cocoa prices. From late 2023, cocoa prices on the London and New York markets rose sharply, with prices exceeding $10,000 per ton in New York. By December 2023, prices hit a record $12,500.
Previously, prices had remained between $2,000 and $3,000 for years, impacting chocolate producers. Swiss-based Lindt & Sprüngli announced plans to raise prices again in 2024 due to rising cocoa costs.
Professor Narcisa Pricope from Mississippi State University noted that cocoa production is facing an "existential threat," especially due to drought.
A study under the UN Convention to Combat Desertification revealed that three-quarters of the Earth's landmass has become drier in the last 30 years. Scientists attribute this mainly to greenhouse gas emissions.
Pricope concluded, "Fighting drought is critical not only to save chocolate but to preserve the planet's capacity to sustain life."
