This summer is highly likely to be recorded as the hottest on record

Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), highlights a direct correlation between global temperature records and atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions. She explains that current global temperatures are 1.2 degrees above pre-industrial averages, proportional to the levels of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere.

Burgess emphasizes that increased emissions have led to heatwaves. She elaborates, "June 2023 marked the hottest June on record globally. In the first days of July, we experienced the hottest days ever recorded, surpassing the temperature records set in August 2016. Following the hottest three-week period in July, July 2023 became the hottest month on record. These trends don't surprise us, as we know that as the density of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere increases, global temperatures will also rise."

Around 6.5 billion people worldwide experienced at least one day of extreme heat in July. Burgess anticipates above-average temperatures in terrestrial areas for August and the coming months, noting that higher temperatures don't necessarily mean the same experience everywhere.

Burgess describes her predictions regarding temperature records:

"We need to wait until the end of August to calculate statistics, but considering the values that have exceeded expectations in the hottest month following record-breaking June and July, this summer will most likely be the hottest one we have seen. Looking at the first 7 months of this year, each month ranks among the top 5 hottest, with June and July leading the way. If this trend of warmer temperatures continues in the Northern Hemisphere during the fall and winter, while it may not be the hottest year, 2023 will certainly rank among the top 3 hottest years. However, this will depend on the values we see during the upcoming fall and winter."

Burgess points out that terrestrial areas are warming at a faster rate than the global average, while sea surface temperatures are also breaking records. She mentions that heatwaves, particularly in the North Atlantic, are occurring, with warm air currently moving westward toward the coast of Canada.

Burgess adds that the Mediterranean has also seen record sea surface temperatures, stating, "We expect Mediterranean temperatures to continue rising."

El Niño Effect

Burgess explains that El Niño conditions have begun globally, causing sea surface temperatures to rise along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador.

She notes that this warm water is currently moving from the Pacific over Australia and Indonesia, saying, "We expect the El Niño effect to continue increasing. There isn't a direct correlation between global temperatures and the development of El Niño. Worldwide heatwaves, increased solar radiation, and higher greenhouse gas emissions have all contributed to record temperatures."

July saw a global average temperature of 16.95 degrees Celsius, setting a new record. According to Copernicus data, July 6th reached 17.08 degrees Celsius, marking the hottest day on record globally. Based on temperature values between July 1st and 23rd, with a global average temperature of 16.95 degrees Celsius, it is projected that July 2023 will become the hottest month on record. The previous record was 16.63 degrees Celsius in July 2019.

During this period, global sea surface temperatures also reached a peak of 20.9 degrees Celsius.

With a global average temperature of 16.51 degrees Celsius, June 2023 not only became the hottest June on record but also ranked as the 7th hottest month.