The world has been warming for decades, but a recent sudden and extraordinary rise in temperatures has pushed the climate system into uncharted territory. Scientists are still trying to understand the cause of this unusual warming.
In the past two years, temperature records have increased persistently and surprisingly, pushing the boundaries of scientific predictions.
Scientists agree that long-term global warming is largely driven by the burning of fossil fuels. However, natural climate variability can also cause annual temperature fluctuations.
There is still ongoing debate about what may have contributed to this recent extraordinary temperature spike. Experts suggest that factors such as changes in cloud structures, air pollution, and the Earth's carbon storage capacity could be influencing the rise. However, a clearer conclusion may take one or two more years.
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Director Gavin Schmidt stated last November, "The warming in 2023 was far ahead of all other years, and 2024 is continuing in a similar manner."
"I wish I knew the reason, but I don't," he added. "We're still assessing what this means and whether there has been a change in the way the climate system is functioning."
Greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide released from fossil fuel burning, trap heat near the Earth's surface. In 2023, fossil fuel emissions reached record levels, and both sea surface and air temperatures consistently rose.
Between June 2023 and September 2024, global temperatures reached unprecedented levels. According to the World Meteorological Organization, this increase shattered records by sometimes significant margins.
The high temperatures made 2023, followed by 2024, the hottest years in recorded history.
Climate scientist Richard Allan from the University of Reading in the UK told AFP, "The record global temperature rise over the past two years has pushed the planet into uncharted territory."
Scientists say that climate variability could partially explain this situation.
2023 followed a rare three-year La Niña event, which cooled the Earth and pushed excess heat into the deep oceans. However, the El Niño event that took over in mid-2023 increased global temperatures.
Despite this, temperatures remained high even after El Niño peaked in January. November 2023 was still recorded as the second hottest November on record.
Some scientists believe the shift to cleaner marine fuels in 2020 may have reduced clouds' ability to reflect sunlight, accelerating warming.
Another theory suggests that the reduction of low-level clouds has allowed more heat to reach the Earth's surface.
However, scientists indicate that it is difficult to form a complete picture of the situation with the current data. This increases the likelihood that deeper, more transformational changes may be overlooked.
Johan Rockström from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research stated that oceans are warming rapidly, and this cannot be fully explained. Rockström added, "Could this be the first sign that the planet is starting to lose its resilience? We can't rule that out."
