Trump-era spike in Israeli settlement growth has only begun

An aggressive Israeli settlement spree of over 9,000 homes during the Trump era pushed deeper into the occupied West Bank than ever before, according to an AP investigation. The trend puts the Biden administration in a tough bind if it follows through on pledges to revive peace efforts between Israel and the Palestinians.

Satellite images and data obtained by The Associated Press document for the first time the full impact of the policies of then-President Donald Trump, who abandoned decades-long U.S. opposition to the settlements and proposed a Mideast plan that would have allowed Israel to keep them all — even those deep inside the West Bank.

Although the Trump plan has been scrapped, the lasting legacy of construction will make it even harder to create a viable Palestinian state alongside Israel. President Joe Biden's administration has embraced the two-state solution — which is still widely seen as the only solution to the decades-old conflict — but given no indication on how it plans to promote it.

The huge number of projects in the pipeline, along with massive development of settlement infrastructure, means Biden would need to stage an intervention with Israel to keep faint hopes for a two-state solution alive. While Biden has condemned settlement activity, U.S. officials have shown no appetite for such a clash as they confront more urgent problems. These include the coronavirus crisis, tensions with China and attempting to revive the international nuclear deal with Iran — another major sticking point with Israel.

At the same time, Israel will likely continue to be led by a settlement hawk. In the wake of yet another inconclusive Israeli election, either Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or one of his right-wing challengers is poised to head the government, making a construction slowdown improbable.

Hanan Ashrawi, a veteran Palestinian spokeswoman, called the Trump administration a "partner in crime" with Netanyahu. She said Biden would have to go beyond traditional empty condemnations and take "very serious steps of accountability" in order to make a difference.

"It needs a bit of courage and backbone and willingness to invest," she said.

According to Peace Now, an anti-settlement watchdog group, Israel built over 9,200 new homes in the West Bank during the Trump presidency. On an annual average, that was a roughly 28% increase over the level of construction during the Obama administration, which pressed Israel to rein in building.

Perhaps even more significant was the location of the construction. According to Peace Now, 63% of the homes built last year were in outlying settlements that would likely be evacuated in any peace agreement. Over 10% of the construction in recent years took place in isolated outposts that are not officially authorized, but quietly encouraged by the Israeli government.

"What we're seeing is the ongoing policy of de facto annexation," said Hagit Ofran, a Peace Now researcher. "Israel is doing its utmost to annex the West Bank and to treat it as if it's part of Israel without leaving a scope for a Palestinian state."

In a key test for Biden, Israel has also laid the groundwork for a massive construction boom in the years to come, advancing plans for 12,159 settler homes in 2020. That was the highest number since Peace Now started collecting data in 2012. It usually takes one to three years for construction to begin after a project has been approved.

Assuming a family of four moves into each of the new units, that would raise the settler population to well over the symbolic number of half a million, amounting to more than 15% of the total population in the West Bank.

Unlike his immediate predecessors, who largely confined settlement construction to major blocs that Israel expects to keep in any peace agreement, Netanyahu has encouraged construction in remote areas deep inside the West Bank, further scrambling any potential blueprint for resolving the decades-old conflict.

Settler advocates have repeatedly said that it would take several years for Trump's support to be realized in actual construction. Peace Now said that trend is now in its early stages and expected to gain steam.

"2020 was really the first year where everything that was being built was more or less because of what was approved at the beginning of the Trump presidency," said Peace Now spokesman Brian Reeves. "It's the settlement approvals that are actually more important than construction."

Israel captured the West Bank, east Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip — territories the Palestinians want for their future state — in the 1967 Mideast war. It withdrew from Gaza in 2005 but has cemented its control over east Jerusalem — which it unilaterally annexed — and the West Bank, where nearly 500,000 settlers live in some 130 settlements and dozens of unauthorized outposts.

The Biden administration says it is opposed to any actions by Israel or the Palestinians that harm peace efforts. "We believe, when it comes to settlement activity, that Israel should refrain from unilateral steps that exacerbate tensions and that undercut efforts to advance a negotiated two-state solution," State Department spokesman Ned Price said this month.

Continued settlement growth could meanwhile bolster the case against Israel at the International Criminal Court, which launched an investigation into possible war crimes in the Palestinian territories last month. Israel appears to be vulnerable on the settlement issue because international law forbids the transfer of civilians into lands seized by force.

Israel and its Western allies have rejected it as baseless and biased. Israel is not a member of the court, but any potential ICC warrants could put Israeli officials at risk of arrest abroad.