Are the recent tremors in the Sea of Marmara a sign of a possible major earthquake in Istanbul?

The Director of Boğaziçi University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Prof. Dr. Haluk Özener, stated that the Marmara Region experiences an average of approximately 900 earthquakes per year, with 4 to 5 of them being above magnitude 4 or 5. He emphasized that the recent seismic activity in the region should be considered within the normal seismic activity density. Regarding the recent earthquakes in the Marmara Sea over the past month, experts evaluated whether they could be precursors to a potential earthquake in Istanbul.

Prof. Dr. Haluk Özener mentioned that the earthquake that occurred in Yalova's Çınarcık district on December 17 with a magnitude of 4.1 was determined to be on the northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault. Referring to the 5.1 magnitude earthquake on December 4 in the Marmara Sea, he explained that this earthquake was on the southern branch of the North Anatolian Fault passing through the Marmara Sea.

He highlighted that there is an expectation of a major earthquake in the Marmara Region, and emphasized the need for preparedness and efforts to reduce earthquake damage. Prof. Dr. Özener pointed out that Turkey has experienced more than 55,000 earthquakes so far in 2023 and stressed the importance of acknowledging and living with the fact that Turkey is prone to earthquakes.

Prof. Dr. Ziyadin Çakır, a faculty member of the Geological Engineering Department at Istanbul Technical University, cautioned against the spread of speculative information on social media about earthquakes. He emphasized the importance of earthquake expertise and criticized the tendency for individuals without relevant knowledge to make inaccurate comments.

Çakır explained that earthquakes with magnitudes of 4 to 5 are considered "normal" in earthquake-prone countries, and the recent earthquakes are not necessarily precursors to a major earthquake in Istanbul. He urged careful consideration if small earthquakes occur near major fault lines. Çakır emphasized the priority of earthquake preparedness and urban transformation in Istanbul, particularly focusing on densely populated areas such as schools, hospitals, and government institutions.

In summary, the experts stressed the need for earthquake preparedness and emphasized that while small earthquakes are common in the region, they do not necessarily indicate an imminent major earthquake in Istanbul. They also highlighted the urgency of urban transformation to reduce the impact of potential earthquakes on populated areas.