Trump sowing chaos in the Pennsylvania governor's race

Donald Trump is still sowing chaos in Pennsylvania Republican politics.

Five weeks before the May 17 primary, the former president this week showcased his lasting power to shape the contours of GOP elections.

First, former U.S. Attorney Bill McSwain suddenly found himself on the opposite side of what he hoped would be Trump's endorsement of his campaign for governor, something McSwain had sought since last June. Trump, in a stinging rebuke, denounced McSwain as a "coward" and singled him out as one candidate in the crowded GOP field that he won't endorse.

Then, state Senate leader Jake Corman filed a court petition to withdraw his name from the primary ballot for governor — only to quickly do an about-face, citing Trump's slam against McSwain. Corman also said he had spoken to Trump, who "encouraged me to keep fighting."

And to top it off, former U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta, another leading candidate, just happened to have a campaign fundraiser planned for Tuesday evening at Mar-a-Lago, Trump's private club in Florida. A source close to Barletta's campaign said the event had long been planned.

The developments didn't bring much clarity to the crowded race to take on state Attorney General Josh Shapiro, the presumptive Democratic nominee. But they unmistakably showed that Trump continues to dictate the terms of the primary campaign. It all came just days after Trump endorsed celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz in the Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary — support Oz quickly highlighted in a new ad.

Other contenders for governor have also been playing up their Trump bona fides. State Sen. Doug Mastriano, who polling suggests is one of the top candidates along with Barletta, invited Trump's spokesperson to a recent rally and is promoting another event with former Trump campaign lawyer attorney Jenna Ellis.

There's risk in overstating support from Trump and those in his orbit. The Barletta campaign source was careful to note that Trump wasn't listed on his fundraiser invitation, though the former president does approve the political events held at his club.

And former Delaware County Councilman Dave White recently touted an endorsement by ex-Trump administration official Richard Grenell by sharing a photo of Grenell with Trump, alongside a picture of White in a hard hat. White, who told Fox News that he was excited about a meeting with Trump, later deleted the photo and replaced it with one of just him and Grenell.

A Fox News poll last month found Mastriano and Barletta leading the field, followed by White and McSwain. But no candidate had even 20% of the vote, and most Republicans were undecided.

The national political environment is widely expected to benefit Republicans in November, given President Joe Biden's low approval ratings, persistent inflation, pandemic fatigue and more.

But individual candidates matter, and in any given race, the party with the wind at its back can still self-destruct.

In Pennsylvania's race for governor, some Republican insiders worry the crowded field could enable someone like Mastriano — a leading election denier who many in the GOP see as a deeply flawed general election candidate — to win the nomination with only a fraction of the vote.

The state Republican Party hasn't done much, if anything, to avoid that scenario. It didn't endorse a candidate at its winter convention. There may yet be a well-funded effort to bring down Mastriano, according to a person familiar with discussions among Republican donors who fear that he would lose to Shapiro.

"We need to win this fall. We can't do all the things that we dream about doing as Republicans unless we actually win," McSwain said during a candidate forum this month. " ... There are some candidates in this race where if they are our nominee, that would be the functional equivalent of us blowing ourselves up. ... We can't treat the primary like a suicide mission."

But the events of this week underscored the challenges of winning a primary in today's Republican Party. Both McSwain and Corman have tried to make inroads with the MAGA faithful — McSwain by writing Trump a letter claiming he had been blocked from investigating voter fraud in 2020, Corman by embracing a partisan review of the election.

At least in McSwain's case, that wasn't enough for Trump.

"Do not vote for Bill McSwain, a coward, who let our Country down," Trump said Tuesday. "He knew what was happening and let it go. It was there for the taking and he failed so badly."

While Trump's tongue-lashing is almost surely a setback for McSwain, his campaign made clear Tuesday that he's moving forward. And McSwain tried to turn the tables on Mastriano, noting his support for a 2019 state law that vastly expanded mail voting. That law passed with wide bipartisan support, before Trump's attacks on mail voting turned much of the party against it.

"I'm proud of my record as U.S. Attorney," McSwain said in a statement. "When I'm governor, we're going to get back to a voting system that everyone has confidence in, and that begins with repealing the unconstitutional mail-in balloting law, Act 77, that Doug Mastriano voted for."

Mastriano shot back that the law was unconstitutionally interpreted by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, and added: "Both President Trump and I are fighting the same battles on behalf of the people."

McSwain has reserved more than $2 million worth of TV ads through the primary and is currently spending more on television than any other candidate, according to AdImpact, which tracks political advertising. So while he has the cash to tell a positive story about his candidacy, it remains to be seen whether lesser-funded rivals will be able to tell voters about Trump's assessment of him. Barletta, for example, had just $350,000 in the bank at the beginning of April, according to financial filings last week – about 20% of McSwain's cash in the bank.

It's also possible that most any voter whose top issue is Trump's widely debunked claims of voter fraud is already behind Mastriano, given his well-publicized efforts to overturn the 2020 election.

McSwain, by contrast, is trying to build a broader conservative coalition by presenting himself as a more traditional law-and-order candidate with strong credentials on other key issues like abortion. Still, one Pennsylvania GOP insider called Trump's criticism "pretty game-changing in a Republican primary."

Perhaps the biggest unknown looming over the race is whether Trump will actually endorse a candidate — not just criticize some of them.

"(Trump) recognizes that his endorsement is a prime piece of political currency, really the gold standard for these Republican primaries," former Trump aide Kellyanne Conway, an adviser to Corman, told reporters last month.

Whereas other candidates have "attenuated" or "assumed" connections with Trump, Corman "is the one who speaks to the president weekly," Conway said. "And I know that as fact — take it to the bank."

Corman played golf with Trump at his West Palm Beach club in February.

"This is anybody's race," Conway said. "Anybody says, 'I'm the front-runner, I'm this, I'm that.' We've done plenty of polling here. No one is running away with it."