With the departure of Italian premier Mario Draghi, the EU and NATO lose one of the strongest backers of their Ukraine policy -- and risk seeing a eurosceptic, pro-Russian politician installed in his place.
Draghi had pushed early to send weapons and money to help Kyiv fight off Russia's invasion, and the former European Central Bank chief is an enthusiastic advocate of the European Union and trans-Atlantic alliance.
But in September elections sparked by the collapse of his coalition this week, he could be replaced by a government dominated by the eurosceptic Brothers of Italy party and the pro-Russian, anti-immigration League.
Together the two parties are polling at almost 40 percent of the vote. With their ally Forza Italia, the right-leaning party led by former premier Silvio Berlusconi, they could secure 45 to 48 percent, according to recent estimates.
Aside from EU Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni -- who denounced the "irresponsible" parties who withdrew their support from Draghi, namely the Brothers of Italy, League and Forza Italia -- Western leaders and officials have reacted cautiously to this week's events.
But there are concerns behind the scenes due to the fact that Draghi, who visited Kyiv in June with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in an EU show of support, "was an important stabilising factor", according to a European diplomat based in Rome.
"Whatever the shape of the future government, political, economic and military support for Ukraine must continue without hindrance," the diplomat told AFP.
As Draghi's government crumbled, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky offered thanks for his support while remaining diplomatic about who might follow, tweeting: "I'm convinced that the active support of the Italian people for Ukraine will continue!"
ADMIRING PUTIN?
Luca Ciriani, the Senate leader for Brothers of Italy, condemned alarmist headlines in the Italian media as "fake news announcing the barbarians at the gate".
"We have shown our seriousness in foreign affairs, when we sided with Italy, the EU, NATO and Ukraine, and it could have cost us a lot in electoral terms," Ciriani said.
Indeed, Brothers of Italy leader Giorgia Meloni has condemned Russia's aggression in Ukraine, in the name of state sovereignty, and defended aid sent to Kyiv.
This despite the party with neo-fascist roots being the only major force in parliament to choose to remain out of Draghi's national unity coalition when he was appointed in February 2021.
But League leader Matteo Salvini has long been an admirer of Russian President Vladimir Putin, while Berlusconi, a personal friend of the Kremlin leader, has remained largely silent over the issue.
GEOPOLITICAL UPHEAVAL
For Italian geopolitics expert Alfio Sciaresa, "a nationalist-conservative coalition would probably have volatile policies, with many internal tensions linked to the different international positions of the three parties".
Although Italy's Atlanticist position "cannot be questioned", individual initiatives by governing parties could "undermine confidence in our country and weaken Western policy towards Putin's actions".
In an editorial, French daily Le Monde noted the "geopolitical upheaval" that would occur with the return to power of parties "with a long history of complacency towards Vladimir Putin", particularly during an energy crisis.
Much of Europe -- and particularly Italy -- is dependent on Russian gas, a difficult situation as the EU imposes sanctions on Moscow for the Ukraine war.
"The future government must continue the huge efforts made by Mario Draghi to reduce Italy's dependence on Russian energy", which saw a new $4 billion deal signed with Algeria days before his resignation, the European diplomat told AFP.
Deliveries from Russian gas giant Gazprom to Italy have been squeezed in recent weeks, but rose by 70 percent on Thursday, the day Draghi resigned.
The timing sparked some speculation that the events might be linked, although Russia also restored supplies that day to other parts of Europe via the Nord Stream pipeline, after 10 days of maintenance.
