German state vote tests support for Berlin's crisis management

German voters in Lower Saxony went to the polls on Sunday in a state election that will gauge support for the crisis-management skills of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition as it seeks to avert energy shortages and an escalation in the Ukraine war.

National issues such as the highest inflation in decades have dominated the campaign in the economically powerful swing state of eight million people, home to carmaker Volkswagen.

"I have never experienced a campaign which focused so much on citizens' very weighty concerns," said Lower Saxony Premier Stephan Weil of Scholz's centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), who is running for re-election, after casting his ballot.

Opinion polls had put the SPD on between 31% and 33% support, suggesting they were on track to land less than the 37% they got in the 2017 election but still retain power, partly thanks to Weil's own popularity.

"Weil has a sensible approach and it would be good if he really implements what he is promising," said voter Holger Gruetzner, noting his main worry was "that many people won't be able to pay to heat their home".

Exit polls will be published as voting closes at 6 p.m. (1600 GMT) on Sunday, before official results start to be announced from 6:30 p.m.

The SPD has more at stake than its conservative rivals, who were polling second place in Lower Saxony but won the two previous regional votes, in Schlewsig-Holstein and North Rhine-Westphalia. Scholz's party has slumped in polls to 18-20% at national level after scoring 25.7% in the 2021 federal election.

The election - the last regional poll this year - is expected to deliver a mixed message on support for his three-way "traffic light" federal coalition, especially given the diverging fortunes of the two junior partners - the Green and Free Democrats (FDP).

The Greens - whose ministers are the most popular politicians in Scholz's cabinet - are on track to double their share of the vote to between 16% and 19% in Lower Saxony.

That could enable the SPD to potentially break from the conservatives, with whom they have been ruling in a grand coalition in the state, and hook up with the Greens instead.

The pro-business FDP, which are not a natural fit with the Greens and SPD, risk failing to even reach the 5% hurdle to enter the state parliament, according to polls.

The party is often seen by voters as putting the brakes on popular government programmes due to its focus on fiscal rectitude, said Philipp Koeker, political scientist at the University of Hanover, the capital of Lower Saxony.

"The FDP could become even more of a difficult partner in the coalition if they fail to enter the state parliament," Koeker said.

Meanwhile, the far-right Alternative for Germany looks set to nearly double its share of the vote to around 10% in Lower Saxony, reflecting a surge at national level on frustrations with the cost of living crisis.