Ex-NATO general, analysts predict Ukraine ceasefire in 2023

A ceasefire in the Russian war against Ukraine can be expected during 2023 and even as early as mid-year, according to a former German army and NATO general.

"I expect in summer, when both sides will say, this is going nowhere," Hans-Lothar Domröse told Germany's Funke media group. The most likely time for such a stalemate to arise would be between February and May, he said.

"That would be the moment for ceasefire negotiations," said Domröse, who held senior positions in the international forces in Afghanistan and later in NATO command structures in Europe.

But he stressed that this does not mean peace. "Ceasefire means the shooting stops. Negotiations are likely to take a long time, you need a mediator," he said, naming UN Secretary General António Guterres, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan or Indian President Narendra Modi as possible candidates to lead the process.

The only thing that remains is a negotiated solution that is acceptable to both sides, "even if [Vladimir] Putin would actually like to have all of Ukraine and [Volodymyr] Zelensky would like to liberate all of Ukraine again."

As a possible solution, Domröse said the Ukrainian president could renounce the demand to immediately reincorporate territories like Crimea into Ukraine and instead agree upon a transition period for this.

Russia and security expert András Rácz of the German Council on Foreign Relations agreed that there could be negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in the summer.

"I'm pretty sure that by the end of the year we will have some kind of ceasefire: with hopefully no more fighting at all, but at least much less fighting," Rácz told the media group.

He said it was unlikely that Russia would want to wage an intense war even before or during the presidential election that is due to be held in 2024. He therefore expected Russia to want to reduce the intensity of the fighting over the course of 2023. "This is also because the Russian army's supply problems are likely to intensify in the summer," Rácz added.

The chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the European Parliament, David McAllister, stressed that the Kremlin could not and should not impose a dictatorial peace on Ukraine.

"If and when the conditions for ceasefire negotiations are given, that is for the Ukrainian government alone to decide," McAllister told the Funke newspapers.