Daily coronavirus case numbers in China could hit a record high of 3.7 million on Friday, according to independent researchers, as the country grapples with a massive wave of infections following the end of its zero-Covid policy.
The number of Covid-19 deaths could peak at 25,000 a day 10 days later, the London-based Airfinity analytics company said in its latest forecast.
By that point, more than half a million people could have died due to a Covid infection in China since the beginning of December, according to the estimates. Airfinity estimates the number could rise to 1.7 million by the end of April.
After pursuing some of the strictest measures in the world for nearly three years with lockdowns, mandatory quarantine, mass testing and contact tracing, China suddenly reversed its zero-Covid policy on December 7.
That unleashed a wave of cases, with 248 million people, or 18% per cent of the population, having caught Covid-19 in the first three weeks of December alone, according to estimates.
The current wave is expected to last until March or April. However predictions are difficult to make as the authorities have stopped publishing coronavirus data.
Airfinity predicted a peak arriving at the beginning of March, at 4.2 million daily new infections, with rural areas particularly impacted.
Experts are particularly worried about an outbreak in smaller cities and rural areas ahead of the Chinese New Year.
Traditionally, millions of people travel across the country to visit their families on the holiday which marks the beginning of the new year according to the Chinese calendar. This year, Chinese New Year falls on January 22.
