According to peace researchers at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), global nuclear powers, including China, are modernizing and expanding their nuclear arsenals due to the deteriorating security situation worldwide, including the conflict in Ukraine.
While the total stock of nuclear warheads decreased by nearly 200 to an estimated 12,512 between 2022 and 2023, the number of operational nuclear weapons has started to increase.
China, in particular, has undergone a significant modernization and expansion of its nuclear weapons arsenal, with a focus on land-based ballistic missiles.
SIPRI estimates China's stockpile at 410 warheads, a rise of 60 compared to the previous year, and the trend is still upward. This development raises concerns as it contradicts Beijing's stated goal of maintaining a minimum nuclear deterrent for national security.
Satellite imagery from 2021 revealed that China had been constructing hundreds of new missile silos in northern China. As of January 2023, approximately 350 silos are still under construction.
If each of these silos were to be equipped with nuclear warheads, it could result in the deployment of around 560 nuclear intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
In addition to China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and to a lesser extent, Russia, have also increased their stockpiles of nuclear warheads.
Nuclear diplomacy has suffered setbacks since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Russian President Vladimir Putin suspended the "New Start" disarmament treaty, the last major nuclear disarmament agreement with the United States, in February 2023.
Putin also announced the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, a neighboring country of NATO member Lithuania.
The situation highlights the urgent need to restore nuclear diplomacy and strengthen international controls on nuclear weapons. The lack of communication channels between nuclear-armed rivals and geopolitical tensions increases the risk of misjudgments, misunderstandings, or accidents, emphasizing the dangerous period the world is currently facing, according to SIPRI director Dan Smith.
