Will US support for Israel push it into greater isolation in 2024?

The US has Israel's back, President Joe Biden said in a speech shortly after Hamas' Oct. 7 attack, reiterating Washington's unwavering support for Israel's "right to defend itself."

There was, however, little mention of the need to protect civilian lives amid Israel's complete siege on Gaza, as Biden accused Hamas of using civilians as "human shields."

As civilian casualties soared due to Israel's relentless bombing of Gaza, the Biden administration has been facing increased international pressure, with millions of people taking to the streets in world capitals, calling for a cease-fire.

Although the US remains one of the few countries opposing a cease-fire in Gaza, the worldwide pressure led to a change in the tone of US officials, a shift from "unwavering" support of Israel to gradually ratcheting up pressure on Israel to take "every possible precaution" to minimize harm to Palestinian civilians.

Despite calls from the US, the civilian death toll continued to soar, with nearly 21,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, killed as of this week, and 55,000 injured, according to Gaza's health authorities.

Around 1,200 Israelis are believed to have been killed in the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, according to Israeli figures.

Biden administration officials say that in their meetings with Israeli officials, they have been urging Tel Aviv to take additional steps to protect civilians although it is not clear what those steps are and whether Israel has so far taken any.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke about a gap between Israel's intent to protect civilians and results on the ground in Gaza.

US officials also say their efforts behind the scenes to urge Israel to increase humanitarian access to Gaza yielded positive results, including Israel allowing the entry of fuel, a seven-day humanitarian pause for hostage releases, restoring internet access, and opening crossings into Gaza.

But despite the massive civilian deaths, the risk of regional escalation, and damage to the US global standing and credibility, experts do not see any sign yet that Biden is willing to shift his policy on Gaza.

"The challenge is that Biden, from the outset, signed onto the Israeli military objective of completely defeating Hamas-which, based on the US' own experience in the global war on terror, is unlikely to be achieved," Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington, DC, told Anadolu.

"As long as he sticks to that objective, he will oppose a cease-fire," he added.

GROWING INTERNATIONAL ISOLATION

The US has a longstanding special relationship with Israel, having provided its closest ally in the Middle East with a total of over $124 billion in aid since World War II, more military assistance than any other country.

There have been growing calls from Biden's Democrats in the US House and Senate to create conditions for future military aid to Israel even as Biden bypassed Congress to supply tank shells to Israel.

The US has Israel's back on the UN Security Council as well, having used its veto power several times, including being the only country to veto a Dec. 8 resolution demanding an immediate humanitarian cease-fire in Gaza, leading to charges that the US is growing more and more isolated.

The US on Friday abstained from from voting on a watered-down UN resolution calling for immediate aid deliveries to Gaza while its allies Britain, France, and Japan backed it.

More analysts and experts started to question how the US' unconditional support for Israel will affect its standing in the Middle East and around the world.

"Decades of brutal Israeli control have demolished the moral case for unconditional US support." Harvard University political scientist Stephen Walt argued in a 2021 essay.

"Biden's support for Israel's Gaza campaign has cost the US tremendously internationally because the double standards between Gaza and Ukraine are simply too great and too intolerable," Parsi also wrote.

"The US is as isolated in Gaza as Russia was in 2022 on Ukraine. It is difficult to assess exactly what the long-term damage to the US will be," he added.

Asked about Israel's war on Gaza hurting America's image in the world, Blinken said the international community should also be pressing Hamas to lay down its arms, surrender and "stop hiding behind civilians."

BIDEN-NETANYAHU RIFT

Despite the overall support for Israel, there have been disagreements between President Biden and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Biden has expressed opposition to the reoccupation of Gaza and continued his support for a two-state solution. He also said at a Dec. 12 fundraiser that the Netanyahu government must "change," calling it "the most conservative government in Israel's history." Biden warned that Israel is losing international support because of its "indiscriminate bombing" of Gaza.

But the Netanyahu government insists on Israel retaining overall security control of post-Hamas Gaza and opposes a two-state solution.

US officials, from Blinken to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, say that the conflict in Gaza needs to move to a "lower intensity phase" while Netanyahu in contrast has vowed to intensify the fight against Hamas in the coming days.

"Disagreements between Israel and the US will be growing over the weeks, not only on the war in Gaza but also on Israel's desire to expand the war into Lebanon," said Parsi.

"The question is if Biden has the strength to liberate the US from Israel's policy and pursue an independent line that serves US interests," he added.