British Conservatives set for worst election result, poll suggests

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party could be reduced to fewer than 100 members of parliament (MPs) at the general election, a new poll has suggested.

The 15,000-person poll was used to create a seat-by-seat breakdown, which indicated the Conservatives would be wiped out in Scotland and Wales and hold just 98 seats in England.

The survey put Labour on 45%, with a 19-point lead over the Conservatives on 26%.

The constituency forecast suggested Keir Starmer's party could be on course for a landslide, winning 468 seats.

The poll suggests the Scottish National Party (SNP) would pick up 41 seats, the Liberal Democrats 22 and Plaid Cymru two.

In 2019 the Conservatives had 365 seats, Labour 203, the SNP 48, the Lib Dems 11 and Plaid four.

In an analysis which will fuel Conservative unease about the threat from Reform UK, the survey suggested Richard Tice's party will come second in seven seats and achieve an overall vote share of 8.5%, just behind the Liberal Democrats on 10.4%

But a model of what would happen if Reform UK did not stand suggested the Conservatives would win 150 seats – still a crushing defeat, but potentially giving Sunak, or more likely his replacement, a better chance to rebuild.

The study, carried out by Survation for the internationalist Best for Britain campaign group, suggested several Cabinet ministers, including potential leadership contenders, could be ousted at the election as the Conservatives face their worst result.

Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, Home Secretary James Cleverly and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps would all lose their seats, according to the study, which used a multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) process to model constituency-level results.

Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch looks likely to retain her seat, along with former home secretary Suella Braverman and ex-immigration minister Robert Jenrick.

In Sunak's new Richmond and Northallerton seat, which, based on the 2019 results should be solidly Conservative, he has just a 2.4% lead over Labour, while Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has just a 1% margin over the Liberal Democrats in his new Godalming and Ash seat.

Best for Britain chief executive Naomi Smith said: "With the polling showing swathes of voters turning their backs on the Tories, it's clear that this will be a change election."

The poll of 15,029 adults and MRP analysis by Survation was conducted between March 8 and 22.