Study puts North Korea's arms deliveries to Russia at up to $5.5bn

North Korea's arms deliveries to Russia for use in Russia's war against Ukraine amount to as much as $5.5 billion, a study published on Monday from the Friedrich-Naumann Foundation found.

The report "Putin's Partner" by the German foundation, which is considered close to the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP) headed by Finance Minister Christian Lindner, predicted that the value of North Korea's exports could increase by hundreds of millions of dollars through a potential deployment of its troops to Ukraine.

For the study, Olena Guseinova from Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul evaluated intelligence reports, leaked documents and ammunition prices from previous North Korean arms deals. Based on this, she estimated the volume of North Korean arms deliveries to Russia since February 2022, when Russia started the war, to be between $1.7 billion and $5.5 billion.

North Korea does not publish data on its arms exports, making a more accurate estimate practically impossible. According to the South Korean intelligence agency, which bases its reports partly on satellite photos monitoring shipments between North Korea and Russia, North Korea mainly supports the Russian army with artillery shells and short-range missiles.

"The Ukraine war has worsened the security situation in East Asia. Russia and North Korea are working to destabilize the international order," said Frederic Spohr, head of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation Korea.

The South Korean central bank estimates that the total volume of North Korea's gross domestic product (GDP) for the previous year at $23.7 billion, so $5.5 billion in exports to Russia would represent nearly 25% of North Korea's GDP.