Goldman Sachs expects full oil demand recovery in 2022

Global oil demand is expected to return to pre-coronavirus levels in 2022 with a pickup in transportation and recovery in major economies, Goldman Sachs said in a report on Thursday.

The US-based investment banking firm said it estimates global oil demand will decline by 8% in 2020, compared to last year, and increase by 6% in 2021, and finally fully recover to levels before COVID-19 by 2022.

The bank said that global oil consumption could be raised with an increase in commuting, a shift to private transportation, and with governments advocating higher infrastructure spending.

Oil demand has already started picking up with recoveries in major Asian economies, such as China and India, the report said.

However, global oil demand remains significantly low, with a 12% fall seen in June 2020, compared to the same month of the previous year, it added.

The bank anticipates gasoline will mark the highest recovery among all oil products, and advised that jet fuel consumption is highly dependent on consumer confidence.

It warned that air travel would remain sparse without a vaccine for the novel coronavirus, and further cautioned that although global oil demand is recovering slowly, a second wave of COVID-19 could easily weaken overall global oil consumption.

Goldman Sachs said it estimates Brent crude will average $35 per barrel in the near-term and increase to average $55 a barrel in 2022.