Turkey's locally-made armed drones reshaping regional power balance by transforming warfare

The progress Turkey has made in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) continues drawing frequent international press coverage. British newspaper The Guardian wrote that the Bayraktar unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAV) are rapidly changing the military balance in the region. In Telegraph's report, it was pointed out that the nature of the war was changing. Financial Times brought to the agenda that Turkey, as a rising drone power, was a rival to the US, Israel, and China when in terms of combat drones. German Die Welt included that Turkey had become one of the leading countries in UCAV technology and had some military victories. French Libération described the UCAVs as a symbol of Turkey's power and independence. It was reported in Russian media that Kazakhstan would be giving up on Chinese UAVs and buying the Bayraktar TB2 instead. Forbes magazine from the US described Turkish UCAVs as 'magic bullets', Foreign Policy as 'flying, armored beasts' and Spanish El Pais as the 'new owners of the sky'. Turkish UCAVs were frequently featured in the Israeli and Greek media as well. The dramatic story behind the production process of these combat drones, as well as these UCAVs breaking grounds in the realm of warfare and playing a decisive role in the course of the conflicts in the region, is essentially the reason why they caused such a big splash. The story of the production of Turkish UCAVs dates back to the 1990s. However, the mobilization of local and national resources for UAV production makes an appearance with the developments in 2008-2010. At that time, Turkey, who had requested Predator and Reaper drones from the US to fight against terrorism, Ankara did not get the response it hoped for. The US either delayed these requests or offered options that restricted the use of Predators. And these were not enough to meet the demands of Turkey in its fight against terrorism. A similar process was experienced with Israel as well. The delivery of the Israeli Heron drones was delayed. In addition, the maintenance processes of the Heron drones took a long time after being sent to maintenance in the following period. All of these developments and challenges played a significant role in Turkey's taking action for producing UAV/UCAVs using domestic and national resources. Operation Spring Shield played a major role in Turkish UCAVs becoming a rapidly rising item on the world agenda. This was a military operation launched against the Assad regime by Turkey after 34 Turkish soldiers were martyred in the attack carried out by the regime. During the operation, Russia took a stand that made things more difficult for Turkey by not opening its airspace in Syria. However, Turkey carried out the operation despite the current conditions. Developments that nobody was expecting took place during the operation launched by Turkey. Turkish UCAVs made war history. The world met with the first drone swarm attack in war history in Syria with the usage of many UCAVs at the same time during Operation Spring Shield. In these attacks, Turkish UCAVs almost broke the lock of the closed airspace in Syria and brought the new operational ability to today's combat systems on the battlefield with swarm UCAV attacks. In addition, Turkey delivered a heavy blow to the Assad regime with these attacks, and it was found that Russian defense systems fell short against the UCAVs. This manifested itself in the internal conflicts in Libya as well. Russian defense systems on the opposite front became an ordinary target for the UCAVs purchased by the legitimate Government of National Accord in Libya (GNA), within the scope of a defense cooperation agreement with Turkey. The image of the Russian-made air defense system Pantsirs, which were helpless against the UCAVs in Libya, among the world public became a concern for the Russians. After in Syria and Libya, Turkish UCAVs also appeared in Azerbaijan's operations to free Karabakh from the Armenian invasion. Azerbaijan used the UCAVs it had purchased from Turkey effectively on the battlefield. The UCAVs provided important opportunities for the Azerbaijani army during the conflict. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated that Turkish UCAVs strengthened the Azerbaijani army and that the UCAVs made a great contribution to Azerbaijan's victory in Karabakh. Following these developments, Turkish UCAVs, naturally, were not limited to being a subject brought up by the media alone in the world press. British Secretary of State for Defence Ben Wallace, Indonesian Commander of the Indonesian National Armed Forces Hadi Tjahjanto, and Ukrainian Minister of Defense Andriy Taran made statements that highlighted the impact of Turkish UCAVs on the battlefield. With all of these developments, Turkish UCAVs have made their name in regions beyond the Middle East, the Mediterranean, and the Caucasus, as far as in Europe and Central Asia. The performance of Turkish UCAVs in Syria, Libya, and Karabakh brought new questions to the military field. One of the most significant advantages of the UCAVs was preventing loss of life, being unmanned systems. They were also economical in comparison to most military systems. On the other hand, UAVs had an important function in gathering intelligence. Enemy elements becoming easy targets against the UCAVs established an important psychological advantage in warfare. Thus, with footage of enemy targets being hit, Turkey's allies and sister countries obtained significant gains in psychological warfare as well. Whether Turkish UCAVs will turn into a driving force in Ukraine too, as in other regions, is also on the agenda of Russian military experts. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia requesting to buy UCAVs from Turkey may bring along a new agenda in terms of the transformative effects of Turkish UCAVs in the region. One of the remarkable comments on the UCAVs was made by the American political scientist Francis Fukuyama who put forward the 'End of History' thesis. Fukuyama wrote that UCAV usage contributed to Turkey's rising as a regional power and had a decisive impact on the power balance. Another remarkable point in Fukuyama's article was that he highlighted that the UCAV technology would change the nature of ground troops. In wars, the ground troops and tanks were an important element of holding, as well as capturing, the region where the war started. It was quite costly to have the tanks, weapons, and systems necessary for these armies, as well as keeping these systems up to date. The UCAVs could easily destroy tanks and carry out an unmanned war, significantly reducing the financial and psychological costs of wars. This situation pointed to developments that would change the rules of warfare. Of course, the need for costly systems that are easily destroyed will not completely disappear due to the different functions that they have; however, developments indicate that the need for these systems may decrease. Thus, we could say that the use of UCAVs in the context of warfare, defense, and attack is likely to kick off a new era. In addition, the Turkish army, which gained experience in combining land and air systems, especially in Operation Olive Branch and Operation Peace Spring, has become a prominent power among the world armies with this rare experience. In his thesis 'The End of History', Fukuyama had argued that Islam appeals to a large number of people in the world and has important effects on the social order, but that it is not strong enough to drag large masses and bring a new order to the entire world. Time will tell if different assessments will be made when Turkey's transformative role in the region is considered together with Fukuyama's assessment regarding Turkish UCAVs and his approach towards Islam in his 'The End of History' thesis. However, we may expect such new assessments when the military and political steps taken by Turkey that reduce or eliminate conflicts in the region are considered together with the transformative effects of Turkish UCAVs and Turkey's contributions to regional peace. Perhaps, the 'End of History' thesis could evolve into the 'Return of History'. In conclusion, Turkish UCAVs have earned a worldwide reputation in many fields with their decisive role in the field and the new opportunities they present in warfare. The UCAVs can be said to have become an effective political tool utilized by Turkey in the region. We could say that the UCAV policy of Turkey creates a psychological sphere of influence with the operational success it had against the Russian Pantsir air defense systems -- the recent technology that attracted great attention from international media -- and the footage of the targets being hit on the field. We can observe that Turkish UCAVs have risen to a position that is commercial against global powers who hold a monopoly over arms sales, unrivaled in the messages sent to opposing armies and indisputable in regards to the marks that they have left on war history. This article has been penned by Mustafa Öztop [who is the Ph.D. candidate at the Political History and International Relations of the Middle East Department of Marmara University] for Turkey's state-run news agency.