The global energy system is facing an unprecedented level of fragility driven by geopolitical tensions, the International Energy Agency (IEA) chief warned on Tuesday.
"We are living in an extremely fragile situation. The global economy… depends today on a very limited number of actors," Fatih Birol told France Inter.
Speaking at the IEA headquarters in Paris, Birol said volatility around the Strait of Hormuz is a key risk factor for global energy markets.
He warned that disruptions in the narrow waterway could have widespread consequences for the global economy, calling the situation "absurd, but real."
"The vase is broken. And when a vase is broken, you cannot fully repair it," Birol said, stressing that the effects of the current crisis would be long-lasting.
He said global energy markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, including signals from major political actors such as US President Donald Trump, whose statements on trade and energy policy continue to contribute to market uncertainty.
"The global economy depends today on a very limited number of actors," he said, stressing the concentration of risk in energy supply chains.
The IEA chief also pointed to the impact of the war in Ukraine, which disrupted oil and gas flows and reshaped global supply chains, particularly in Europe.
He noted that Russia remains a key player in global energy markets despite sanctions and shifting trade patterns, adding to volatility in prices and supply routes.
Birol compared the current situation to the oil shocks of the 1970s but said the present crisis was even more severe due to its combined impact on oil, gas, fertilizers and petrochemicals.
He warned that the crisis could deepen inflation and slow global growth, with particularly serious consequences for emerging economies, including countries in Africa and South Asia.
On Europe, he said, countries such as France are relatively better prepared but will still face higher prices and pressure on household purchasing power.
He added that restoring stability could take years, noting that damaged energy infrastructure and market volatility could require at least two years to normalize conditions.
Birol also said the crisis could accelerate the global energy transition, with renewables, nuclear power and electric vehicles emerging as key beneficiaries, while some countries may temporarily increase coal use.
